According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates while inflation rebounds, a setup they state the stock market will like, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. According to The Kobeissi Letter, wage growth is likely to lag inflation and the wealth gap could widen, signaling pressure on real consumer incomes, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Aug 23, 2025. For traders, looser policy into rising inflation can boost risk assets, and crypto often trades as high beta to equities with documented periods of positive BTC–Nasdaq correlation in 2020–2022, source: Kaiko Research correlation studies 2022–2023 and Coin Metrics State of the Network. Key market checks for positioning include DXY, the US 2-year yield, and real yields, where a softer dollar and lower front-end yields have coincided with stronger BTC and ETH in prior risk-on phases, source: Federal Reserve H.15 data and Kaiko Research.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman's basket of stocks specifically designed to perform well during stagflationary environments has continued to soar, as new data confirms worsening stagflation in 2025. The report highlights a combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy, placing the Federal Reserve in a challenging position with limited policy solutions (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 30, 2025). For traders, this signals increased volatility and potential opportunities in sectors historically resilient to stagflation, such as commodities and defensive equities. Close monitoring of inflation data and Fed policy responses is essential for informed trading strategies.